Historical H2H data shows zero matches exceeding 2.5 goals in the last 10 meetings, a 0% rate. Both teams have also recorded 0% over 2.5 rates in their respective home and away games this season, with Arouca averaging 0 goals scored at home and Santa Clara 0 away. The implied probability of 89% is slightly below my assessed 90%, but the edge is minimal, making this a high-confidence but not value bet.

BTTS has not happened in any of the last 10 H2H meetings, a 0% rate. Additionally, both Arouca at home and Santa Clara away have a 0% BTTS rate this season, supported by their low scoring averages of 0 goals per game. The implied probability of 82% is close to my assessed 85%, indicating strong alignment but no significant value.

Santa Clara shows a consistent form trend with 1.33 PPG in last 3, while Arouca is declining at 1 PPG. Arouca's home win rate is just 40%, and Santa Clara draws 40% of away games. However, the implied probability of 78% exceeds my assessed 75%, so there is no value, but confidence remains moderate due to the form and draw tendencies.