The H2H history strongly supports a low-scoring affair, with only 1 of 5 meetings exceeding 2.5 goals and no BTTS in any of those matches. Arsenal's defence has been exceptional, conceding just 4 goals in 8 league games (0.5 per game), while Atletico Madrid's attack is weakened by multiple injuries including Alvarez and Sorloth. The bookmaker odds imply an 85% probability for under 2.5 goals, which aligns with the historical and statistical evidence.

The H2H record shows a 0% BTTS rate over the last 5 meetings, indicating both teams struggle to score against each other. Arsenal's defensive solidity (4 goals conceded in 8 games) combined with Atletico's injury-depleted attack (Alvarez, Sorloth, and others out) makes a clean sheet for either side highly likely. The implied probability of 80% from odds of 1.25 is consistent with the data.