The H2H record is extremely low-scoring with only 1 of 10 meetings exceeding 2.5 goals and 0% BTTS rate. Arsenal's strong home defense (0.76 goals conceded per game overall) and Fulham's poor away record (24% win rate) suggest a controlled, low-scoring match. The implied probability of 83% is slightly below my assessed 85%, but the edge is minimal; however, confidence is high due to multiple independent signals.

The H2H trend is definitive: no BTTS in the last 10 meetings, indicating a pattern of one-sided or tight defensive matches. Arsenal's overall defensive solidity (0.76 goals conceded per game) and Fulham's struggles on the road (4 wins in 17 away games) support a clean sheet for Arsenal or a low-scoring affair. The implied probability matches my assessment, so no value, but confidence is strong.

Arsenal's dominant home record (76% win rate) contrasts sharply with Fulham's poor away form (24% win rate). The statistical comparison favors Arsenal across attack, form, and H2H categories. While the odds imply 69% probability, my assessed 75% is supported by these two strong signals, though the edge is not large enough for a value bet.