The H2H record shows a strong trend toward low-scoring matches, with only 20% of meetings exceeding 2.5 goals and 0% seeing both teams score. Both Atlas and Cruz Azul have solid defenses, conceding just 1.06 goals per game on average, which supports a low-scoring quarter-final. The implied probability of 85% aligns with the assessed probability, making this a high-confidence selection.

The H2H record is extremely strong for BTTS No, with zero occurrences in the last 10 meetings. Both teams have solid defensive records, conceding just 1.06 goals per game, and the average goals per H2H meeting is only 1.8. The assessed probability of 80% slightly exceeds the implied probability of 78%, but the edge is minimal, so this is not flagged as a value bet.