H2H history is extremely low-scoring with only 2 of 10 meetings going over 2.5 goals and 0 of 10 seeing both teams score. Chapecoense have failed to win any of their 8 away matches this season, averaging 0 goals scored away, while Bahia's home clean sheet rate is 0% but they face a side that rarely scores on the road. The combined average goals per game for both teams is well below 2.2, and the under 2.5 market is strongly supported by historical and current form data.

In 10 H2H meetings, both teams have never scored (0% BTTS rate). Chapecoense have scored 0 goals per away game this season and have a 0% away win rate, making it highly unlikely they find the net against Bahia. Bahia's home BTTS rate is also 0%, reinforcing the pattern of one-sided or low-scoring affairs.

Bahia have a significant form advantage (83% vs 17%) and are facing a Chapecoense side that has lost 6 of 8 away matches with 0 wins on the road. Bahia's home record (3W/4D/2L) is solid, and they are improving with 2 PPG in their last 3 matches. The implied probability of 70% is slightly below the assessed 75%, but the edge is not large enough to mark as a value bet.