The H2H record is extremely low-scoring with only 1 of 10 meetings exceeding 2.5 goals and 0 of 10 seeing both teams score. Bournemouth's home form shows a 35% win rate and 0% clean sheet rate, but the H2H dominance of draws (6 of 10) and low goal average (0.7 per game) strongly supports under 2.5. The implied probability of 80% is slightly below my assessed 85%, but the edge is only 5 percentage points, so this is not a value bet.

The H2H record shows a perfect 0% BTTS rate over 10 meetings, indicating both teams struggle to score simultaneously in this fixture. Bournemouth's home attack is weak (0 avg goals per game derived) and Crystal Palace's away defense is solid (0 avg conceded derived). The implied probability of 75% is close to my assessed 80%, with a small edge of 5 percentage points, so this is not a value bet.

Bournemouth have lost only 2 of 17 home games this season (88% unbeaten rate) and are on an improving form trend with 2.33 points per game in their last 3. The H2H record shows Bournemouth unbeaten in 7 of 10 meetings (70%). However, the implied probability of 89% exceeds my assessed 85%, meaning there is no value; the market is already pricing this outcome efficiently.