Home › Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 › Estepona vs Águilas

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4

Estepona

🔥 Excellent · 11/15 pts

10:00

Águilas

👍 Good · 9/15 pts

Home 10% Draw 45% Away 45%

🗓 Sun 26 Apr 2026, 10:00 📍 Estadio Municipal Francisco Muñoz Pérez, Estepona 🏆 Group 4 - 33

🎯 Our AI Picks for This Match

AI-ranked by confidence · only the bets worth considering

2 tips

Double Chance HIGH CONFIDENCE

X2 (Draw or Águilas)

Odds

1.33

Implied chance

≈75%

Águilas are league leaders with a strong away record (7W/4D/5L) and the best defence in the competition (0.72 goals conceded per game). Estepona have the worst home record in the group with only 3 wins in 16 home games (19% win rate). The implied probability of 75% is slightly below our assessed 78%, but the edge is under 5 percentage points so this is not a value bet.

💡 Double Chance — covers two of the three possible outcomes

75% conf.

Strong

Under 2.5 Goals

Under 2.5

Odds

1.53

Implied chance

≈65%

Águilas have the best defensive record in the league (0.72 goals conceded per game) while Estepona score only 1.16 goals per game on average. The H2H average of 2.2 goals per meeting also supports a low-scoring affair. Our assessed probability of 68% is slightly above the implied 65%, but the edge is marginal and not enough for a value bet.

💡 Bet on whether total goals scored stay below the line

70% conf.

Decent

✅ 1 high-confidence pick (75%+)

All tips generated by AI · Gamble responsibly

📊 Odds & Implied Probability Opening odds · % = bookmaker's implied likelihood

Match Result — 1X2

Estepona

2.50

≈40% chance

Draw

2.88

≈35% chance

Águilas

2.70

≈37% chance

Bookmaker margin: 12% · Lower margin = better value for bettors

Goals Total — Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5 goals

2.38

≈42% chance

Under 2.5 goals

1.53

≈65% chance

Double Chance

Home or Draw

1.30

Away or Draw

1.33

Home or Away

1.80

🏟 Form & Head-to-Head

Recent Form (last 5 games · W=Win D=Draw L=Loss)

Estepona

W W D W D

🔥 Excellent (11/15 pts)

Águilas

W W W L L

👍 Good (9/15 pts)

Head-to-Head — Last 5 meetings

Estepona: 2W (40%) Draws: 1 (20%) Águilas: 2W (40%)

Nov 2025 Águilas vs Estepona 2 - 1

Feb 2025 Estepona vs Águilas 3 - 1

Oct 2024 Águilas vs Estepona 0 - 0

Jan 2024 Águilas vs Estepona 1 - 0

Sep 2023 Estepona vs Águilas 2 - 1

📈 Season Stats Comparison ▲ = statistical edge

Estepona

Águilas

⚽
Goals Scored

▲ 42

🥅
Goals Conceded

▲ 23

🏆
Wins

▲ 17

🏅
League Position

▲ 1

📊 Águilas leads on 4/4 comparable stats

🔮 Statistical Model Predictions API-Football algorithm — reference data

Home Win

10%

Draw

45%

Away Win

45%

Statistical favourite: Águilas

Category Comparison

55%

📋 Form

45%

56%

⚔️ Attack

44%

38%

🛡 Defence

63%

50%

🔁 H2H

50%

47.0%

🎯 Overall

53.2%

🎯 AI Match Verdict

Top recommended bet:

X2 (Draw or Águilas)

Double Chance · 75% confidence

Odds

1.33

AI confidence

75%

+ 1 more tip — scroll down ↓

🗳️ Fan Poll 0 votes

What's your prediction?

Estepona 33%

Draw 34%

Águilas 33%

📖 How to Use This Page

Check Our AI Picks

Look for tips with 75%+ confidence (green ring). These are our strongest signals. ⭐ Value Bet means the odds may be higher than expected.

Understand the Odds

Each odds cell shows the bookmaker's implied probability (%). Compare this to the AI's confidence — if AI confidence is higher than implied %, that's a potential value opportunity.

Study the Stats

The ▲ arrows show which team has the statistical edge. Check form, H2H history, and season stats before deciding. A 🔥 Excellent form team with H2H dominance is a stronger pick.

Place Your Bet

Use a bookmaker below. Find the match → go to the market shown on the tip → select the outcome → confirm your stake.

⚠️ Gamble responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Tips are AI-generated for entertainment — not guaranteed outcomes.

🎚 Confidence Tiers

80%

75%+ — Strong Pick

High AI conviction. Prioritise these.

70%

65–74% — Decent Pick

Good signal, some uncertainty remains.

55%

Below 65% — Speculative

Lower confidence. Smaller stakes advised.

📚 Market Glossary

1X2 — Home Win / Draw / Away Win

Over 2.5 — 3 or more goals total in the match

Under 2.5 — 2 or fewer goals total in the match

BTTS Yes — Both teams each score ≥1 goal

Double Chance — Covers 2 outcomes, lower risk & lower odds

Draw No Bet — Win if your team wins; stake back on draw

⭐ Value Bet — AI thinks odds are higher than they should be

Implied % — The bookmaker's probability (1 ÷ odds × 100)

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