Primeira Liga
GIL Vicente
😐 Mixed · 5/15 pts
VS
19:15
Casa Pia
⚠️ Poor · 2/15 pts
Home 45%
Draw 45%
Away 10%
🗓 Mon 27 Apr 2026, 19:15
📍 Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos 🏆 Regular Season - 31 👨⚖️ B. J. Costa
🎯 Our AI Picks for This Match
3 tips
AI-ranked by confidence · only the bets worth considering
Under 2.5 Goals
HIGH CONFIDENCE
Under 2.5
Odds
1.17
Implied chance
≈85%
Historically, this fixture is extremely low-scoring: 0 of 8 H2H meetings went over 2.5 goals, averaging just 0.88 goals per game. Both teams have a 0% over 2.5 rate in their respective home/away splits this season (0 in 15 each). With full squads available and no attacking firepower on either side, under 2.5 goals is highly probable.
💡 Bet on whether total goals scored stay below the line
85%
conf.
Strong
BTTS No
HIGH CONFIDENCE
No
Odds
1.25
Implied chance
≈80%
BTTS has never occurred in any of the last 8 H2H meetings, and both teams have a 0% BTTS rate in their respective home/away splits this season (0 in 15 each). Casa Pia's attack is weak (28 goals in 30 games) and GIL Vicente's defense is solid (31 conceded in 30). The statistical alignment strongly supports BTTS No.
💡 Both teams must score at least 1 goal each
80%
conf.
Strong
Double Chance
HIGH CONFIDENCE
1X (GIL Vicente or Draw)
Odds
1.12
Implied chance
≈89%
GIL Vicente are strong at home with a 73% unbeaten rate (8 wins, 3 draws in 15 home games), while Casa Pia have only won 20% of their away matches. GIL Vicente's recent form is improving (1.33 PPG last 3) compared to Casa Pia's poor run (0.33 PPG last 3). The implied probability matches the assessed probability, so no value, but the confidence is solid.
💡 Double Chance — covers two of the three possible outcomes
75%
conf.
Strong
✅ 3 high-confidence picks (75%+)
All tips generated by AI · Gamble responsibly
📊 Odds & Implied Probability
Opening odds · % = bookmaker's implied likelihood
Match Result — 1X2
GIL Vicente
1.62
≈62% chance
Draw
3.75
≈27% chance
Casa Pia
5.50
≈18% chance
Bookmaker margin: 7% · Lower margin = better value for bettors
Goals Total — Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 goals
5.00
≈20% chance
Under 2.5 goals
1.17
≈85% chance
Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
Yes — both score ✓
3.75
≈27% chance
No — clean sheet ✗
1.25
≈80% chance
Other Totals
Over 1.5
2.20
≈45%
Under 1.5
1.62
≈62%
Over 3.5
13.00
≈8%
Under 3.5
1.04
≈96%
Over 4.5
7.00
≈14%
Under 4.5
1.10
≈91%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
1.12
Away or Draw
1.62
Home or Away
1.62
🏟 Form & Head-to-Head
Recent Form (last 5 games · W=Win D=Draw L=Loss)
GIL Vicente
L
D
W
L
D
😐 Mixed
(5/15 pts)
Casa Pia
L
D
L
D
L
⚠️ Poor
(2/15 pts) Head-to-Head — Last 8 meetings
3
4
1
GIL Vicente: 3W (38%)
Draws: 4 (50%)
Casa Pia: 1W (12%)
Dec 2025
Casa Pia
vs
GIL Vicente
1 - 1
Feb 2025
Casa Pia
vs
GIL Vicente
1 - 0
Sep 2024
GIL Vicente
vs
Casa Pia
1 - 1
Mar 2024
Casa Pia
vs
GIL Vicente
0 - 0
Oct 2023
GIL Vicente
vs
Casa Pia
2 - 0
📈 Season Stats Comparison
▲ = statistical edge
GIL Vicente
Casa Pia
44
▲
⚽
Goals Scored
Goals Scored
28
31
▲
🥅
Goals Conceded
Goals Conceded
53
12
▲
🏆
Wins
Wins
5
6
▲
🏅
League Position
League Position
16
📊 GIL Vicente leads on 4/4 comparable stats
🔮 Statistical Model Predictions
API-Football algorithm — reference data
Home Win
45%
Draw
45%
Away Win
10%
Statistical favourite:
GIL Vicente
Category Comparison
71%
📋 Form
29%
78%
⚔️ Attack
22%
60%
🛡 Defence
40%
50%
🔁 H2H
50%
66.0%
🎯 Overall
34.0%
🎯 AI Match Verdict
Top recommended bet:
Under 2.5
Under 2.5 Goals · 85% confidence
Odds
1.17
AI confidence
85%
+ 2 more tips — scroll down ↓
🗳️ Fan Poll
0 votes
What's your prediction?
GIL Vicente
33%
Draw
34%
Casa Pia
33%
📖 How to Use This Page
1
Check Our AI Picks
Look for tips with 75%+ confidence (green ring). These are our strongest signals. ⭐ Value Bet means the odds may be higher than expected.
2
Understand the Odds
Each odds cell shows the bookmaker's implied probability (%). Compare this to the AI's confidence — if AI confidence is higher than implied %, that's a potential value opportunity.
3
Study the Stats
The ▲ arrows show which team has the statistical edge. Check form, H2H history, and season stats before deciding. A 🔥 Excellent form team with H2H dominance is a stronger pick.
4
Place Your Bet
Use a bookmaker below. Find the match → go to the market shown on the tip → select the outcome → confirm your stake.
⚠️ Gamble responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Tips are AI-generated for entertainment — not guaranteed outcomes.
🎚 Confidence Tiers
80%
75%+ — Strong Pick
High AI conviction. Prioritise these.
70%
65–74% — Decent Pick
Good signal, some uncertainty remains.
55%
Below 65% — Speculative
Lower confidence. Smaller stakes advised.
📚 Market Glossary
1X2 — Home Win / Draw / Away Win
Over 2.5 — 3 or more goals total in the match
Under 2.5 — 2 or fewer goals total in the match
BTTS Yes — Both teams each score ≥1 goal
Double Chance — Covers 2 outcomes, lower risk & lower odds
Draw No Bet — Win if your team wins; stake back on draw
⭐ Value Bet — AI thinks odds are higher than they should be
Implied % — The bookmaker's probability (1 ÷ odds × 100)
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