The H2H average of 2.33 goals per game and 0% BTTS rate strongly suggest a low-scoring affair. Gremio's poor away form (0 wins, 0 clean sheets in 9 games) combined with Mirassol's home over 2.5 rate of 0% (0 in 9 games) further supports under 2.5. The implied probability of 88% is slightly higher than my assessed 82%, so no value bet, but confidence is high at 82%.

The H2H BTTS rate of 0% across 3 meetings is a strong indicator. Both teams have low scoring rates in their respective home/away contexts, with Mirassol's home BTTS at 0% and Gremio's away BTTS also at 0%. The odds imply 80% probability, matching my assessment, so no value but high confidence.

Mirassol's dominant H2H record (2 wins, 1 draw) and Gremio's winless away record (0 wins in 9 games) make Mirassol or Draw a strong selection. The implied probability of 85% is slightly above my assessed 80%, so no value, but the data supports a 75% confidence level.