The H2H record shows only 20% of meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, a strong historical pattern. Newcastle are in terrible form with 5 straight losses and limited attacking output, while Brighton's away record is modest. Both teams have full squads, but the low-scoring trend and defensive focus in this fixture support under 2.5 goals.

The H2H data is extremely strong with 0% BTTS in the last 10 meetings, indicating a clear pattern of one team dominating or low scoring. Both teams have 0% BTTS rates in their respective home/away splits this season, though these derived metrics may be incomplete. Newcastle's poor form and Brighton's inconsistent away scoring further support BTTS No.

Brighton are in excellent form with 4 wins in their last 5, while Newcastle have lost 5 straight and are trending downward. The statistical comparison heavily favors Brighton across form, attack, and defense. Although the implied probability is slightly higher than my assessed probability, the strong form and H2H balance support Brighton avoiding defeat.