The H2H record shows only 20% of meetings went over 2.5 goals, and AC Milan's defense concedes just 0.79 goals per game on average. Sassuolo's form is declining, and both teams have full squads, but the historical trend strongly favors a low-scoring match. The implied probability of 82% is close to my assessed 85%, so no value bet, but confidence is high.

Historically, BTTS has not occurred in any of the last 10 H2H meetings, and AC Milan's defense is solid, conceding less than a goal per game. Sassuolo's home scoring rate is low, making it likely that at least one team fails to score. The assessed probability of 82% exceeds the implied 75%, but the edge is under 5 percentage points, so it's not a value bet.

AC Milan has a strong away record with a 59% win rate, and they have dominated the H2H with 6 wins in 10 meetings. Sassuolo's home form is mediocre at 47% wins, and their form is declining. The implied probability of 88% matches my assessed probability, so no value, but the selection is solid.