The H2H data strongly supports a low-scoring affair, with an average of just 2.1 goals per game and only 30% of meetings exceeding 2.5 goals. Critically, both teams have failed to score in all 10 recent H2H matches, indicating a tight, defensive pattern. Toluca's solid overall defense (0.94 goals conceded per game) and Pachuca's recent form dip (3 losses in last 5) further reinforce the likelihood of a low-scoring quarter-final.

The historical H2H data is the strongest signal here, with BTTS failing to land in all 10 recent encounters. Toluca's unbeaten home record and solid defensive stats (0.94 goals conceded per game) suggest they can keep a clean sheet or limit Pachuca to one goal. Combined with Pachuca's recent form slump (3 losses in last 5), the likelihood of both teams scoring is very low.