Home › Liga MX › Toluca vs Leon

Liga MX

Toluca

⚠️ Poor · 2/15 pts

01:00

Leon

🔥 Excellent · 12/15 pts

Home 35% Draw 35% Away 30%

🗓 Sun 26 Apr 2026, 01:00 🏆 Clausura - 17

🎯 Our AI Picks for This Match

AI-ranked by confidence · only the bets worth considering

2 tips

Double Chance HIGH CONFIDENCE

1X (Toluca or Draw)

Odds

1.12

Implied chance

≈89%

Toluca are undefeated at home with 4 wins and 3 draws, while Leon have lost 5 of 8 away matches. The head-to-head record also favors Toluca with only 1 loss in 10 meetings. These two strong signals support a high probability of Toluca avoiding defeat.

💡 Double Chance — covers two of the three possible outcomes

80% conf.

Strong

Over/Under Goals

Under 2.5 Goals

Odds

1.33

Implied chance

≈75%

Both Toluca at home and Leon away have shown a tendency for low-scoring games, with 0% of their matches going over 2.5 goals. Combined with Toluca's solid defense (0.94 goals conceded per game overall), under 2.5 goals is likely despite the high H2H average.

💡 Bet on whether total goals scored exceed the line

65% conf.

Decent

✅ 1 high-confidence pick (75%+)

All tips generated by AI · Gamble responsibly

📊 Odds & Implied Probability Opening odds · % = bookmaker's implied likelihood

Match Result — 1X2

Toluca

1.50

≈67% chance

Draw

4.20

≈24% chance

Leon

5.75

≈17% chance

Bookmaker margin: 8% · Lower margin = better value for bettors

Goals Total — Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5 goals

3.25

≈31% chance

Under 2.5 goals

1.33

≈75% chance

Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Yes — both score ✓

2.75

≈36% chance

No — clean sheet ✗

1.40

≈71% chance

Other Totals

Over 1.5

1.67

≈60%

Under 1.5

2.10

≈48%

Over 3.5

7.00

≈14%

Under 3.5

1.10

≈91%

Over 4.5

17.00

≈6%

Under 4.5

1.02

≈98%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

1.12

Away or Draw

1.80

Home or Away

1.44

🏟 Form & Head-to-Head

Recent Form (last 5 games · W=Win D=Draw L=Loss)

Toluca

L L D L D

⚠️ Poor (2/15 pts)

Leon

L W W W W

🔥 Excellent (12/15 pts)

Head-to-Head — Last 10 meetings

Toluca: 3W (30%) Draws: 6 (60%) Leon: 1W (10%)

Oct 2025 Leon vs Toluca 2 - 4

Feb 2025 Leon vs Toluca 3 - 3

Nov 2024 Toluca vs Leon 2 - 2

Feb 2024 Toluca vs Leon 4 - 1

Oct 2023 Leon vs Toluca 1 - 0

📈 Season Stats Comparison ▲ = statistical edge

Toluca

Leon

24 ▲

⚽
Goals Scored

15 ▲

🥅
Goals Conceded

🏆
Wins

5 ▲

🏅
League Position

📊 Toluca leads on 3/3 comparable stats

🔮 Statistical Model Predictions API-Football algorithm — reference data

Home Win

35%

Draw

35%

Away Win

30%

Statistical favourite: Toluca

Category Comparison

14%

📋 Form

86%

38%

⚔️ Attack

63%

36%

🛡 Defence

64%

62%

🔁 H2H

38%

49.2%

🎯 Overall

51.0%

🎯 AI Match Verdict

Top recommended bet:

1X (Toluca or Draw)

Double Chance · 80% confidence

Odds

1.12

AI confidence

80%

+ 1 more tip — scroll down ↓

🗳️ Fan Poll 0 votes

What's your prediction?

Toluca 33%

Draw 34%

Leon 33%

📖 How to Use This Page

Check Our AI Picks

Look for tips with 75%+ confidence (green ring). These are our strongest signals. ⭐ Value Bet means the odds may be higher than expected.

Understand the Odds

Each odds cell shows the bookmaker's implied probability (%). Compare this to the AI's confidence — if AI confidence is higher than implied %, that's a potential value opportunity.

Study the Stats

The ▲ arrows show which team has the statistical edge. Check form, H2H history, and season stats before deciding. A 🔥 Excellent form team with H2H dominance is a stronger pick.

Place Your Bet

Use a bookmaker below. Find the match → go to the market shown on the tip → select the outcome → confirm your stake.

⚠️ Gamble responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Tips are AI-generated for entertainment — not guaranteed outcomes.

🎚 Confidence Tiers

80%

75%+ — Strong Pick

High AI conviction. Prioritise these.

70%

65–74% — Decent Pick

Good signal, some uncertainty remains.

55%

Below 65% — Speculative

Lower confidence. Smaller stakes advised.

📚 Market Glossary

1X2 — Home Win / Draw / Away Win

Over 2.5 — 3 or more goals total in the match

Under 2.5 — 2 or fewer goals total in the match

BTTS Yes — Both teams each score ≥1 goal

Double Chance — Covers 2 outcomes, lower risk & lower odds

Draw No Bet — Win if your team wins; stake back on draw

⭐ Value Bet — AI thinks odds are higher than they should be

Implied % — The bookmaker's probability (1 ÷ odds × 100)

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